Microsoft May Win Big With OpenAI Valuation. Amazon’s Rivian Record Shows the Risk.

OpenAI is reported to be seeking a valuation of up to $90 billion—a bid that, if successful, would yield a hefty paper profit for Microsoft, a key investor in the artificial intelligence company.The creator of ChatGPT, which set off a market frenzy over AI that has buoyed tech stocks and the S&P 500 this year, OpenAI is in talks over a share sale that would value it between $80 billion and $90 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019 and raised its stake with an undisclosed amount in 2021. Its latest investment reportedly covered $10 billion over multiple years.No matter the details, Microsoft would notch an enormous paper gain from a new OpenAI valuation approaching $90 billion.

Rivian’s initial public offering in November 2021 came around the time both Bitcoin and the Nasdaq were trading at record highs, at the peak of the last bull market. Given the investor frenzy over AI, and signs that it is a bubble that still has room to grow before bursting, Amazon’s record is worth examining.

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